China Versus the West: The Global Power Shift of The 21st Century
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More About This Title China Versus the West: The Global Power Shift of The 21st Century


China Versus the West is an innovative book.

The author, a leading specialist on the international and Asian economy and business, presents the most comprehensive picture of the changing power balance between the emerging superpower China and the "old" developed economies of the West: mainly the US, Europe and Japan. The reader can clearly see in what areas and to what extent China has become the world leader, in what areas it is catching up and in what areas the West retains its superiority and has a chance to strengthen it further.

At the same time, I. Tselichtchev unveils a breath-taking story of the global economy and business in the brave new world which is non-"West-led" and where major growth dynamics are coming from large emerging economies. A radically changing economic environment requires new government policies and business strategies. The book contains many valuable suggestions and ideas. Using his own analytical framework, the author presents a set of options and alternatives for Western businesses in the wake of China's production and export offensive.

The book provides a uniquely sharp and thought-provoking analysis of the factors behind the global crisis of 2008-2009, largely different from what we see in other publications, and examines its implications for the global power balance. I. Tselichtchev vividly shows that it was not global, but Western crisis of a structural character which drastically changed the China-West power balance in the former's favor. He provides strong arguments showing that today's China is structurally and macro-economically stronger than most countries of the West. This leads him to rethinking the very essence of the Chinese model of capitalism and to its new definition. He expresses unconventional, sometimes controversial, but well-founded views about China's problems and weaknesses and the prospects for its political evolution.

The book ends with invaluable insights into China's unique role in the world economic history, the essence of the non-"West-led" multipolar world and the positions of its major players. Arguing that from now on no single country will be ever able to "rule the world", it shows new opportunities dynamic China is opening for the West.

Thoroughly analyzing and discussing a wide range of the key, often complicated issues which are now in the focus of the world's attention, the book remains very reader-friendly. It is written in the form of an unconstrained dialogue with the reader, containing a lot of the author's on-the-spot impressions, interesting facts, remarks and quotations.

China Versus the West is a must reading for everyone who wants to know more about the global developments, China and the West, and also, perhaps, to get valuable inputs and hints to find his or her own place in today's new world. It is highly recommended for policy-makers, business people, academics, analysts and journalists. It is a valuable source for professors and students of the universities and business schools.


Ivan Tselichtchev, PhD, is currently a professor at the Niigata University of Management, Japan. He is an internationally renowned expert and writer on the Asian and global economy and business, actively writing in English, Japanese, and Russian. He is the author of four books, coauthor of Asia's Turning Point (Wiley), contributor to many other academic publications, and the author of nearly two hundred articles. Teaching in Niigata since 1994, he has also worked as a part-time faculty member in a number of leading universities in Japan and lectured in different countries around the world. He is a commentator for the CNBC international TV network. In Gorbachev's perestroika years, he was awarded the Labor Valor Medal and in 2004, the Cabinet Office of the Government of Japan named I. Tselichtchev Seikatsu Tatsujin (A Master of Life), signifying a person with outstanding achievements and lifestyle.


Foreword by Yang Yongxin xiii

Preface xvii

Acknowledgments xxi

Introduction by Frank-Jürgen Richter xxv

Part One China as the World's Leading Producing, Exporting, and Financial Power: To What Extent, Where, and Why? 1

Chapter 1 GDP: Toward the U.S.-China Duopoly 3

Notes 6

Chapter 2 Manufacturing Output: China Is Already the Number One 7

Note 8

Chapter 3 Merchandise Exports: From China's Lead to China's Dominance? 9

Chapter 4 Where China Is Leading and Where It Is Not 13

Group One Industries: China Is the Top Producer and the Top Exporter 13

Group Two Industries: China Is the Top Producer, but Not the Top Exporter 22

Group Three Industries: China Is Neither the Top Producer Nor a Major Exporter 25

Key Features of China's Manufacturing Lead 25

Anatomy of China's Merchandise Trade Surplus 26

Net Exporter and Net Importer Sectors 27

Domestic Private Companies Have Become the Major Surplus Creators 27

Note 28

Chapter 5 Chinese Domestic Manufacturers versus Western Manufacturers 29

The Four Segments Analytical Framework 29

Chinese Manufacturers' Global Offensive: Four Stages 31

Western Manufacturers: A New Way of Thinking Is Required 41

Option One: Stay at Home and Differentiate the Product 43

Option Two: Move to China 45

Western Governments Have to Initiate an Export Counteroffensive 46

Chapter 6 A Big Battle for the Chinese Market 49

China-Bound Exports of Capital Goods: East Asia Is Leading 50

China-Bound Exports of Consumer Goods: Opportunities Are There, but You Have to Work Hard Not to Miss Them 50

China Trap 51

At-Home Chinese Companies Are Active in the High-End Niche 52

Competition with Domestic Capital Goods Makers Is Getting Really Tough 54

Chapter 7 Global Services Market: The West's Edge and China as Number Five 57

China Joins the Ranks of Leading Services Exporters, but the United States Is

Far Ahead 57

China's Trade Defi cit 59

China Has a Structural Weakness in Services That Is Diffi cult to Overcome 61

The U.S. and EU Surpluses in the Services Trade with China Are Meager 61

The Right Time to Capture the Chinese Market 62

Note 64

Chapter 8 Is China a New Financial Superpower? 65

China's Overseas Assets 65

$3 Trillion-Plus Foreign Reserves: Implications for China and for the West 66

China Has Become the Largest International Lender for Developing Countries 69

China's Outbound Foreign Investment: Accelerating, but the Lag Remains 70

Chinese Households' Financial Assets: Still Tiny 72

Is China a New Financial Superpower? Yes and No 73

Conclusions 75

Part Two The Global Downturn and Beyond: Western Capitalism and Chinese Capitalism 79

Chapter 9 The Global Crisis Was Not Really Global 81

Chapter 10 Western Crisis: Three Major Factors 85

Unaffordable Consumption and Households Deeper in Debt 85

Gambling Capitalism 89

The Failure of State Regulation, Corporate Governance, and Business Morality 91

Chapter 11 Still, Western Capitalism Is Alive, But. . . . 95

Calm Down: No End of Capitalism 95

Soaring Public Debts as the Biggest Crocodile 103

The Welfare State Has to Be Trimmed More and Faster 108

Chapter 12 Is China Structurally Stronger Than the West? 113

Improvement of Lending Practices and Persistent Fight with Overheating 114

Enhancing Regulatory Standards for Banks 116

Healthy Public Finance 118

Chapter 13 The Chinese Model of Capitalism 121

The Need for a New Conceptual Framework 121

The Chinese System Is Not State Capitalism: A Great Shift to Private Property 122

Creating Market-Style State-Owned Companies 124

Fierce Competition and the Culture of Self-Responsibility 128

Chinese Capitalism: Definition 129

A Digression about China's Structural Weaknesses and Political Evolution 130

Chapter 14 Global Rebalancing Will Not Be Easy 137

Can the Idea Work? 138

Private Consumption in China Is Already Growing Fast 138

Yet Expansion of China's Domestic Demand Is One Thing, and Rebalancing Is Another 140

Too Rapid Increase of China's Consumption May Have Dire Side Effects 142

Present Position: Imbalance or Equilibrium? 143

Conclusions 146

Part Three The China-West Economic Wars: And the Winner Is. . . . 151

Chapter 15 China's Choice Is to Further Expand Trade Surpluses and Keep the Yuan Weak 153

The Rationale for Not Appreciating the Yuan Faster 153

The Rationale for Increasing Savings and Exports Rather than Consumption 155

Chapter 16 Environment: China Going Its Own Way 157

Global Climate Talks: Doubts Remain If Not Increase 158

Concern about the Impact on Growth 160

A Wider Angle Is Needed 161

China's Pro-Environmental Drive 162

China-West Environmental Cooperation 163

China As a New World Leader in Green Business? 166

Chapter 17 A Fight for Natural Resources: China Sets New Rules of the Game 169

Changes in the Global Markets 169

Chinese Model of Tapping Resources 170

African Saga 172

He Acts While Other Men Just Talk 173

China Has Become a Major Source of Development Aid 174

Chapter 18 Indigenous Innovation: Seeking to Command Advanced Technologies by All Means 177

The West is Creating China as a New Technological Superpower 178

Soaring Foreign Investment in R&D Centers and Production Upgrading 179

China's Technological Strategy 181

Technology Transfer Enforcement 182

Chapter 19 Company Acquisitions: Chinese Are More Active than Westerners 185

Acquisitions Asymmetry 186

The Chinese Government Is

Tightening Regulations 187

Western Governments Are Blocking Chinese Acquisitions of Technology and Resource Firms 188

Chinese Acquirers Are Backed by the State 189

Conclusion: The West Needs a Cohesive China Policy and Unconventional Responses to China-Posed Challenges 191

Epilogue: China, the West, and the World 199

References 211

About the Author 221

Index 223