Wake Up! - Survive and Prosper in the ComingEconomic Turmoil
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'This book is a dramatic wake-up call to investors. It portrays an apocalyptic future of high risk and low rewards. It is well informed and highly readable. While some may dispute the author's bleak vision, this is nevertheless required reading for anyone who wants to understand the massive changes hitting the world's economies in the coming decades.' Luke Johnson, Chairman of Channel 4 and Signature Restaurants and Columnist for The Sunday Telegraph.

'This book is a compelling recital of serious points upon which all citizens, whether professional investors or not, will have to make up their mind.' Simon Cawkwell (aka "Evil Knievil", leading British Bear).

'If you are not yet worried about the financial future you should be. The global economy isn't as healthy as you think it is. Wake Up! explains why and then tells you exactly what to do about it. A brilliantly written and very convincing financial horror story. A must read for anyone who wants to preserve their capital over the coming decade.' Merryn Somerset-Webb, Editor of MoneyWeek and Sunday Times Columnist.


Jim Mellon is an investor with a twenty-year background in fund management. He is the founder of several companies and remains the principal shareholder of Charlemagne Capital, the leading emerging market asset manager. He lives in the Isle of Man and in Spain. He has a Masters Degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University and is an Honorary Fellow of Oriel College, Oxford. He is a recognized expert in development economics.

Al Chalabi is an entrepreneur who has been based in Asia for eight years and has extensive experience of developing economies. He has a bachelor’s degree in engineering and a Masters in Business Administration. He consults widely for multinational corporations on strategy, particularly in relation to technology. Originally from Iraq, Al grew up in the UK after his family moved there when he was a young child. Al has also lived in Canada, France and the United States and currently lives in Hong Kong.


Introduction – Protect Your Business and Investments 1

The time for action is now! 4

It is going to happen and within this decade 5

Part One – Global Tensions 9

Global population growth 12

An aging population in the Rich World 15

The environmental consequences of our ‘footprint’ on earth 18

Increasing divide between rich and poor 34

Part Two – The Global Economy is Under Threat 55

The general outlook 57

Economic theories 58

The pension theories 58

The pension burden 73

Warren Buffet, the Sage of Omaha, is bearish! Take heed 76

Financial instruments of mass destruction 78

United States’ economic situation 80

China the global player 102

Japan - a long deflation and decline 115

Eurosclerosis – the trouble with the old world 119

Part Three – Geopolitics 127

US foreign policy 129

Superpower contenders 136

Terrorism 151

Rogue states and weapons of mass destruction 161

Part Four – Lessons From History 175

Past wars and conflicts 178

Moving on from war – other lessons from the past 198

Examples of filed nations and empires – more lessons from a dismal history 206

Part Five – Financial Survival Guide 213

Preserving your wealth in the coming economic turmoil 215

Money – a brief history 216

The essentials 218

Diversification is key to financial longevity 232

Outstanding liabilities 239

More sophisticated/adventurous investors 240

Business owners 241

Don’t be a victim 242

Other useful information 246

Part Six – Timeframe and Summary 255

The uncertain future 257

Summary 264

Appendix A – Budgeting Template 275

Appendix B – Being Prepared for a Worst Case Scenario 277

References 281

Notes 283

Index 287


"...a well-written, well-argued book, well worth buying for Christmas" (What Investment, Nov 05)

"...the real value of this book is that is should alert people and leaders..." (Money Matters, July 2006)