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More About This Title Making Telecoms Work - From Technical Innovationto Commercial Success
English
Drawing on 25 years of participative experience in the mobile phone and telecommunications industry, the author closely analyses the materials, components and devices that have had a transformative impact. By presenting detailed case studies of materials innovation, such as those shown at success story Apple, the book shows how the collaboration of technological imagination with business knowledge will shape the industry’s future.
- Makes a link between the technical aspects and the business practice of the telecoms industry, highlighting the commercial and economic significance of new developments
- Gives a historical analysis of past successes and failures in order to identify future competitive advantage opportunities
- Supplies detailed case studies of supply chain disconnects and the impact these have on industry risk and profitability
- Brings together technological detail with analysis of what is and is not commercially important, from the implications of energy and environmental networks to the technical details of wireless network hardware.
English
He co-developed RTT's original series of design and facilitation workshops including 'RF Technology', 'Data Over Radio', 'Introduction to Mobile Radio', and 'Private Mobile Radio Systems’ and developed 'The Oxford Programme', a five day strategic technology and market programme presented annually with the Shosteck Group. Over the past twenty years, several thousand senior level delegates have attended these programmes.
As a Director of Cambridge Wireless, Geoff is involved in a number of wireless heritage initiatives that aim to capture and record past technology and engineering experience and has helped with fundraising at the Science Museum for the new Making of Modern Communications Gallery opening in 2014.
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List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xix
Acknowledgements xxiii
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Differentiating Technology and Engineering Innovation 1
1.2 Differentiating Invention and Innovation 2
1.3 The Role of Standards, Regulation and Competition Policy 2
1.4 Mobile Broadband Auction Values – Spectral Costs and Liabilities and Impact on Operator Balance Sheets 3
1.5 TV and Broadcasting and Mobile Broadband Regulation 4
1.6 Technology Convergence as a Precursor of Market Convergence? 5
1.7 Mobile Broadband Traffic Growth Forecasts and the Related Impact on Industry Profitability 5
1.8 Radio versus Copper, Cable and Fibre – Comparative Economics 6
1.9 Standardised Description Frameworks – OSI Seven-Layer Model as a Market and Business Descriptor 7
1.10 Technology and Engineering Economics – Regional Shifts and Related Influence on the Design and Supply Chain, RF Component Suppliers and the Operator Community 8
1.11 Apple as an Example of Technology-Led Market Innovation 12
Part I USER HARDWARE
2 Physical Layer Connectivity 15
2.1 Differentiating Guided and Unguided Media 15
2.2 The Transfer of Bandwidth from Broadcasting to Mobile Broadband 15
2.3 The Cost of Propagation Loss and Impact of OFDM 17
2.4 Competition or Collaboration? 18
2.5 The Smith Chart as a Descriptor of Technology Economics, Vector Analysis and Moore’s Law 19
2.6 Innovation Domains, Enabling Technologies and their Impact on the Cost of Delivery 20
2.7 Cable Performance Benchmarks 33
2.8 Hybrid Fibre Coaxial Systems 34
2.9 The DVB-S Satellite Alternative 35
2.10 Terrestrial TV 35
2.11 Copper Access – ADSL and VDSL Evolution 36
2.12 The Copper Conundrum – the Disconnect between Competition Policy and Technical Reality 42
2.13 OFDM in Wireless – A Similar Story? 42
2.14 Chapter Summary 54
3 Interrelationship of the Physical Layer with Other Layers of the OSI Model 55
3.1 MAC Layer and Physical Layer Relationships 55
3.2 OFDM and the Transformative Power of Transforms 56
3.3 The Role of Binary Arithmetic in Achieving Sensitivity, Selectivity and Stability 61
3.4 Summary 69
3.5 Contention Algorithms 69
3.6 The WiFi PHY and MAC Relationship 73
3.7 LTE Scheduling Gain 83
3.8 Chapter Summary 88
4 Telecommunications Economies of Scale 91
4.1 Market Size and Projections 91
4.2 Market Dynamics 97
4.3 Impact of Band Allocation on Scale Economics 103
4.4 The Impact of Increased RF Integration on Volume Thresholds 113
4.5 The RF Functions in a Phone 118
4.6 Summary 123
5 Wireless User Hardware 125
5.1 Military and Commercial Enabling Technologies 125
5.2 Smart Phones 129
5.3 Smart Phones and the User Experience 141
5.4 Summary So Far 142
5.5 RF Component Innovation 146
5.6 Antenna Innovations 153
5.7 Other Costs 162
5.8 Summary 165
6 Cable, Copper, Wireless and Fibre and theWorld of the Big TV 167
6.1 Big TV 167
6.2 3DTV 169
6.3 Portable Entertainment Systems 170
6.4 Summary of this Chapter and the First Five Chapters – Materials Innovation, Manufacturing Innovation, Market Innovation 171
Part II USER SOFTWARE
7 Device-Centric Software 175
7.1 Battery Drain – The Memristor as One Solution 175
7.2 Plane Switching, Displays and Visual Acuity 176
7.3 Relationship of Display Technologies to Processor Architectures, Software Performance and Power Efficiency 177
7.4 Audio Bandwidth Cost and Value 181
7.5 Video Bandwidth Cost and Value 182
7.6 Code Bandwidth and Application Bandwidth Value, Patent Value and Connectivity Value 184
8 User-Centric Software 185
8.1 Imaging and Social Networking 185
8.2 The Image Processing Chain 186
8.3 Image Processing Software – Processor and Memory Requirements 191
8.4 Digital Camera Software 194
8.5 Camera-Phone Network Hardware 196
8.6 Camera-Phone Network Software 196
8.7 Summary 197
9 Content- and Entertainment-Centric Software 199
9.1 iClouds and MyClouds 199
9.2 Lessons from the Past 200
9.3 Memory Options 203
9.4 Gaming in the Cloud and Gaming and TV Integration 205
9.5 Solid-State Storage 206
10 Information-Centric Software 211
10.1 Standard Phones, Smart Phones and Super Phones 211
10.2 Radio Waves, Light Waves and the Mechanics of Information Transfer 212
10.3 The Optical Pipe and Pixels 214
10.4 Metadata Defined 217
10.5 Mobile Metadata and Super-Phone Capabilities 219
10.6 The Role of Audio, Visual and Social Signatures in Developing ‘Inference Value’ 221
10.7 Revenues from Image and Audio and Memory and Knowledge Sharing – The Role of Mobile Metadata and Similarity Processing Algorithms 221
10.8 Sharing Algorithms 222
10.9 Disambiguating Social Mobile Metadata 223
10.10 The Requirement for Standardised Metadata Descriptors 223
10.11 Mobile Metadata and the Five Domains of User Value 224
10.12 Mathematical (Algorithmic Value) as an Integral Part of the Mobile Metadata Proposition 225
11 Transaction-Centric Software 229
11.1 Financial Transactions 229
11.2 The Role of SMS in Transactions, Political Influence and Public Safety 230
11.3 The Mobile Phone as a Dominant Communications Medium? 232
11.4 Commercial Issues – The End of the Cheque Book? 232
Part III NETWORK HARDWARE
12 Wireless Radio Access Network Hardware 237
12.1 Historical Context 237
12.2 From Difference Engine to Connection Engine 238
12.3 IP Network Efficiency Constraints 240
12.4 Telecoms – The Tobacco Industry of the Twentyfirst Century? 242
12.5 Amortisation Time Scales 242
12.6 Roads and Railways and the Power and Water Economy – The Justification of Long-Term Returns 243 12.6.1 Historical Precedents – Return on Infrastructure Investment Time Scales 243
12.7 Telecommunications and Economic Theory 244
12.8 The New Wireless Economy in a New Political Age? 250
12.9 Connected Economies – A Definition 251
12.10 Inferences and Implications 254
12.11 The Newly Connected Economy 255
13 Wireless Core Network Hardware 257
13.1 The Need to Reduce End-to-End Delivery Cost 257
13.2 Microwave-Link Economics 258
13.3 The Backhaul Mix 259
13.4 The HRAN and LRAN 260
13.5 Summary – Backhaul Options Economic Comparisons 263
13.6 Other Topics 264
14 Cable Network and Fibre Network Technologies and Topologies 267
14.1 Telegraph Poles as a Proxy for Regulatory and Competition Policy 267
14.2 Under the Streets of London 267
14.3 Above the Streets of London – The Telegraph 269
14.4 Corporate Success and Failure – Case Studies – The Impact of Regulation and Competition Policy 269
14.5 The Correlation of Success and Failure with R and D Spending 271
14.6 Broadband Delivery Economics and Delivery Innovation 273
15 Terrestrial Broadcast/Cellular Network Integration 275
15.1 Broadcasting in Historical Context 275
15.2 Digital Radio Mondiale 277
15.3 COFDM in DRM 277
15.4 Social and Political Impact of the Transistor Radio 278
15.5 Political and Economic Value of Broadcasting 280
15.6 DAB, DMB and DVB H 281
15.7 HSPA as a Broadcast Receiver 283
15.8 Impact of Global Spectral Policy and Related Implications for Receiver Design and Signal Flux Levels 284
15.9 White-Space Devices 287
15.10 Transmission Efficiency 289
15.11 Scale Economy Efficiency 289
15.12 Signalling Efficiency 289
15.13 Power Efficiency Loss as a Result of a Need for Wide Dynamic Range 290
15.14 Uneconomic Network Density as a Function of Transceiver TX and RX Inefficiency 290
15.15 Cognitive Radios Already Exist – Why Not Extend Them into White-Space Spectrum? 290
15.16 An Implied Need to Rethink the White-Space Space 291
15.17 White-Space White House 291
15.18 LTE TV 292
15.19 Summary 295
15.20 TV or not TV – That is the Question – What is the Answer? 295
15.21 And Finally the Issue of Potential Spectral Litigation 297
15.22 Technology Economics 300
15.23 Engineering Economics 300
15.24 Market Economics 300
15.25 Business Economics 301
15.26 Political Economics 301
15.27 Remedies 301
16 Satellite Networks 303
16.1 Potential Convergence 303
16.2 Traditional Specialist User Expectations 303
16.3 Impact of Cellular on Specialist User Expectations 304
16.4 DMR 446 305
16.5 TETRA and TETRA TEDS 305
16.6 TETRAPOL 306
16.7 WiDEN 306
16.8 APCO 25 306
16.9 Why the Performance Gap Between Cellular and Two-Way Radio will Continue to Increase Over Time 307
16.10 What This Means for Two-Way Radio Network Operators 307
16.11 Lack of Frequency Harmonisation as a Compounding Factor 307
16.12 The LTE 700 MHz Public-Safety-Band Plan 309
16.13 The US 800-MHz Public-Safety-Band Plan 310
16.14 Policy Issues and Technology Economics 313
16.15 Satellites for Emergency-Service Provision 315
16.16 Satellites and Cellular Networks 316
16.17 The Impact of Changing Technology and a Changed and Changing Economic and Regulatory Climate – Common Interest Opportunities 317
16.18 And Finally – Satellite and Terrestrial Hybrid Networks 318
16.19 Satellite Spectrum and Orbit Options 321
16.20 Terrestrial Broadcast and Satellite Coexistence in L Band 324
16.21 Terrestrial DAB Satellite DAB and DVB H 324
16.22 World Space Satellite Broadcast L Band GSO Plus Proposed ATC 324
16.23 Inmarsat – L Band GSO Two-Way Mobile Communications 324
16.24 Thuraya 2 L Band GSO Plus Triband GSM and GPS 325
16.25 ACeS L Band GSO Plus Triband GSM and GPS 325
16.26 Mobile Satellite Ventures L Band GSO Plus ATC 325
16.27 Global Positioning MEOS at L Band GPS, Galileo and Glonass 325
16.28 Terrestrial Broadcast and Satellite Coexistence in S Band 326
16.29 XM and Sirius in the US – S Band GEO Plus S Band ATC 326
16.30 Mobaho in Japan and S DMB in South Korea – S Band GSO Plus ATC 326
16.31 Terrestar S Band in the US – GSO with ATC 327
16.32 ICO S Band GSO with ATC 327
16.33 ICO S Band MEO at S Band with ATC 327
16.34 Eutelsat and SES ASTRA GSO – ‘Free’ S Band Payloads 328
16.35 Intelsat C Band Ku Band and Ka Band GSO 328
16.36 Implications for Terrestrial Broadcasters 328
16.37 Implications for Terrestrial Cellular Service Providers 329
16.38 The Impact of Satellite Terrestrial ATC Hybrids on Cellular Spectral and Corporate Value 329
16.39 L Band, S Band, C Band, K Band and V Band Hybrids 329
16.40 Summary 330
Part IV NETWORK SOFTWARE
17 Network Software – The User Experience 335
17.1 Definition of a Real-Time Network 335
17.2 Switching or Routing 336
17.3 IP Switching as an Option 336
17.4 Significance of the IPv6 Transition 336
17.5 Router Hardware/Software Partitioning 336
17.6 The Impact of Increasing Policy Complexity 337
17.7 So What Do Whorls Have to Do with Telecom Networks? 338
17.8 Packet Arrival Rates 342
17.9 Multilayer Classification 342
18 Network Software – Energy Management and Control 347
18.1 Will the Pot Call the Kettle Back? 347
18.2 Corporate M2M 348
18.3 Specialist M2M 348
18.4 Consumer M2M 349
18.5 Device Discovery and Device Coupling in Consumer M2M Applications and the Role of Near-Field Communication 349
18.6 Bandwidth Considerations 350
18.7 Femtocells as an M2M Hub? 351
18.8 Summary 352
19 Network Software – Microdevices and Microdevice Networks – The Software of the Very Small 353
19.1 Microdevices – How Small is Small? 354
19.2 Contactless Smart Cards at 13.56 MHz – A Technology, Engineering and Business Model? 357
19.3 Contactless Smart Cards and Memory Spots – Unidirectional and Bidirectional Value 358
19.4 Contactless Smart Cards, RF ID and Memory Spots 358
19.5 Contactless Smart Cards, RF ID, Memory Spot and Mote (Smart Dust) Applications 359
19.6 The Cellular Phone as a Bridge Between Multiple Devices and Other Network-Based Information 359
19.7 Multiple RF Options 360
19.8 Multiple Protocol Stacks 360
19.9 Adoption Time Scales – Bar Codes as an Example 360
19.10 Summary 361
20 Server Software 363
20.1 The Wisdom of the Cloud? 364
20.2 A Profitable Cloud? 364
20.3 A Rural Cloud? 365
20.4 A Locally Economically Relevant Cloud? 365
20.5 A Locally Socially Relevant Cloud? 365
20.6 A Locally Politically Relevant Cloud – The China Cloud? 366
20.7 The Cultural Cloud? 367
21 Future Trends, Forecasting, the Age of Adaptation and More Transformative Transforms 369
21.1 Future Forecasts 369
21.2 The Contribution of Charles Darwin to the Theory of Network Evolution 370
21.3 Famous Mostly Bearded Botanists and Their Role in Network Design – The Dynamics of Adaptation 371
21.4 Adaptation, Scaling and Context 371
21.5 Examples of Adaptation in Existing Semiconductor Solutions 372
21.6 Examples of Adaptation in Present Mobile Broadband Systems 372
21.7 Examples of Adaptation in Future Semiconductor Solutions 373
21.8 Examples of Adaptation in Future Cellular Networks 373
21.9 Specialisation 375
21.10 The Role of Standards Making 376
21.11 The Need for a Common Language 376
21.12 A Definition of Descriptive Domains 377
21.13 Testing the Model on Specific Applications 379
21.14 Domain Value 380
21.15 Quantifying Domain-Specific Economic and Emotional Value 381
21.16 Differentiating Communications and Connectivity Value 382
21.17 Defining Next-Generation Networks 383
21.18 Defining an Ultralow-Cost Network 384
21.19 Standards Policy, Spectral Policy and RF Economies of Scale 385
21.20 The Impact of IPR on RF Component and Subsystem Costs 386
21.21 The Cost of ‘Design Dissipation’ 386
21.22 The Hidden Costs of Content – Storage Cost 387
21.23 The Hidden Costs of User-Generated Content – Sorting Cost 387
21.24 The Hidden Cost of Content – Trigger Moments 387
21.25 The Hidden Cost of Content – Delivery Cost 388
21.26 The Particular Costs of Delivering Broadcast Content Over Cellular Networks 388
21.27 Summary – Cost and Value Transforms 388
Index 391
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“In this excellent book, Geoff Varrall uses his 25 years of experience within the mobile phone and telecommunications industries to analyse the components, devices, and materials that will have a significant impact on the marketplace.” (Radio-Electronics.com, 16 April 2012)
