European Climate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation -A Spatial Planning Perspective
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More About This Title European Climate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation -A Spatial Planning Perspective


European Climate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation: A Spatial Planning Perspective analyses the impacts climate change might have on regions and their local economies. Regions clearly differ in view of the complex patterns of climate change impact, but also regarding the given vulnerability and coping capacity.

Impacts of climate change can have a marked effect on the functioning of regions and sectors of the society, if not properly addressed. Readiness to adapt to the impacts and lasting changes counts towards vulnerability of the regions.

The book builds upon the findings of a project conducted under the European observation network for territorial development and cohesion (ESPON), The ESPON Climate project. Following the stipulations of the ESPON programme and the tender for this project the territorial focus is the raison d’être and methodological core of the project as a whole and its various research actions: The outcomes of each action will be focused on what impacts global climate change will have for the different European regions and how the regions can cope with the projected impacts in order to become less vulnerable to climate change.

This book:

  • Provides a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on 29 European regions and their local economies
  • Takes an interdisciplinary approach dealing with the physical, social, economic, environmental, cultural and institutional aspects of climate change vulnerability and the consequences for spatial planning
  • Builds on the findings of the ESPON Climate project with a policy focused approach
  • Is in full colour throughout with a broad range of case studies


Philipp Schmidt-Thomé, Senior Scientist, Geological Survey of Finland, Finland.

Stefan Greiving, Professor, University of Dortmund, Institute of Spatial Planning, Germany.


Biographies xi

Acknowledgements xiii

List of Contributors xv

Chapter 1 Introducing the pan-European approach to integration on climate change impacts and vulnerabilities into regional development perspectives 1
Philipp Schmidt-Thom´e and Stefan Greiving

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Further research 3

1.3 Structure of the book 4

References 4

Chapter 2 Methodology for an integrated climate change vulnerability assessment 5
Johannes L¨uckenk¨otter, Christian Lindner and Stefan Greiving

2.1 Introduction 5

2.2 Overview of the methodology 6

2.3 Methodology in detail 7

2.4 Methodological reflections 13

2.5 Conclusion 14

References 14

Chapter 3 Identifying a typology of climate change in Europe 17
Carsten Walther, Anne Holsten and J¨urgen P. Kropp

3.1 Introduction 17

3.2 Methods applied 18

3.3 Results and discussion 23

3.4 Conclusion 29

References 29

Chapter 4 Climate change exposure assessment of European regions 31
Christian Lindner, Stefan Greiving and Anne Holsten

4.1 Introduction 31

4.2 Future climate projections: the CCLM model 32

4.3 Indicators on exposure to climatic stimuli 33

4.4 Patterns of climatic changes across Europe 36

4.5 Conclusion 48

References 48

Chapter 5 Physical, environmental, social and cultural impacts of climate change on Europe’s regions 51
Johannes L¨uckenk¨otter, Christian Lindner, Florian Flex and Stefan Greiving

5.1 Introduction 51

5.2 Physical impacts of climate change 52

5.3 Environmental impacts of climate change 59

5.4 Social impacts of climate change 71

5.5 Cultural impact of climate change 80

References 89

Chapter 6 Economic impacts of climate change on Europe’s regions 95
Johannes L¨uckenk¨otter, Ove Langeland, Bjørg Langset, Emmanouil Tranos, Simin Davoudi and Christian Lindner

6.1 Introduction 96

6.2 Agriculture and forestry 96

6.3 Tourism 99

6.4 Energy 105

6.5 Combined economic impact of climate change 110

References 110

Chapter 7 Assessing adaptive capacity to climate change in European regions 113
Sirkku Juhola, Lasse Peltonen and Petteri Niemi

7.1 Introduction 113

7.2 Adaptation and adaptive capacity 114

7.3 Assessing adaptive capacity 116

7.4 Mapping the adaptive capacity of European regions 119

7.5 Enhancement of adaptive capacity in Europe 125

7.6 Conclusion 128

References 128

Chapter 8 Exploring mitigative and response capacities to climate change in European regions 131
Sirkku Juhola, Lasse Peltonen, Petteri Niemi and Jarmo Vehmas

8.1 Introduction 131

8.2 Regional capacities to mitigate climate change 132

8.3 Regional GHG emissions 133

8.4 Determinants of mitigative capacity 134

8.5 Territorial potentials for mitigation of climate change 138

8.6 Regional response capacity to deal with climate change 140

8.7 Conclusion 145

References 145

Chapter 9 Overall impact and vulnerability to climate change in Europe 147
Johannes L¨uckenk¨otter, Christian Lindner and Stefan Greiving

9.1 Overall potential impact of climate change 148

9.2 Vulnerability to climate change 159

9.3 Conclusions 166

References 169

Chapter 10 Role of case studies – methodological concept 171
Stefan Greiving and Philipp Schmidt-Thom´e

10.1 Case studies 171

References 174

Chapter 11 Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change: the case study North Rhine–Westphalia 175
Anne Holsten, Carsten Walther, Olivia Roithmeier and J¨urgen P. Kropp

11.1 Introduction 176

11.2 Description of the study area 176

11.3 Past climatic changes and their impacts in the study area 178

11.4 Methodology of an integrated vulnerability assessment 178

11.5 Results 189

11.6 Discussion 195

11.7 Conclusion 200

Acknowledgements 200

References 200

Chapter 12 Climate change impacts on the Hungarian, Romanian and Slovak Territories of the Tisza catchment area 205
Kriszti´an Schneller, G´abor B´alint, Alina Chicos¸, M´aria Csete, Jan Dzurdzenik, Annam´aria G¨oncz, Alexandru-Ionut Petrisor, Tesliar Jaroslav and Tam´as P´alv¨olgyi

12.1 Introduction 206

12.2 Brief characteristics of Tisza River Basin 206

12.3 Climate change impacts on Tisza River Basin 208

12.4 Vulnerability assessment of the Tisza River case study area 210

12.5 Existing climate change adaptation strategies in the case study area 219

12.6 Policy recommendation and implications 226

References 227

Chapter 13 Tourism, climate change and water resources: coastal Mediterranean Spain as an example 231
David Saur´ý, Jorge Olcina, Jos´e Fernando Vera, Javier Mart´ýn-Vide, Hug March, Anna Serra-Llobet and Emilio Padilla

13.1 Introduction 232

13.2 The study area: a brief presentation 233

13.3 Methodological outline 234

13.4 Vulnerability assessment 237

13.5 Response strategies and policy development 247

13.6 Further outlook on the issue: public perception of the relationships between climate change, water resources and tourism in the tourist zones 249

13.7 Conclusions 249

Acknowledgements 251

References 251

Chapter 14 Sensitivity analyses of the ESPON Climate framework, on the basis of the case study on flooding in the Netherlands 253
Joost M. Knoop, Arno Bouwman and Hans Visser

14.1 Introduction 254

14.2 Flood protection in the Netherlands 256

14.3 Flood modelling 258

14.4 Sensitivity analysis 261

14.5 Discussion and conclusions 266

References 270

Chapter 15 Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Alpine space: a case study on the adaptive capacity of the tourism sector 273
Sylvia Kruse, Manuela Stiffler, Daniel Baumgartner and Marco P¨utz

15.1 Introduction 274

15.2 Climate change impacts and the adaptation of Alpine tourism 275

15.3 Assessing adaptive capacity: methods and measures 277

15.4 Results 281

15.5 Discussion and conclusions 284

References 285

Chapter 16 Comparative analysis of the case studies 289
Stefan Greiving

16.1 Comparative analysis 289

Reference 294

Chapter 17 Implications for territorial development and challenges for the territorial cohesion of the European Union 295
Stefan Greiving, Philipp Schmidt-Thom´e, Simin Davoudi, Lasse Peltonen and Teresa Sprague

17.1 Introduction 296

17.2 Climate change and its implications for existing European policies 296

17.3 Policy options for climate change adaptation and mitigation 303

17.4 Conclusions 318

References 319

Index 323