China's Futures: Scenarios for the World's Fastest Growing Economy, Ecology, and Society
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- Wiley
More About This Title China's Futures: Scenarios for the World's Fastest Growing Economy, Ecology, and Society
English
As it emerges from centuries of social, military, and political strife, China--which represents one fifth of the world's population and its third largest economy--is poised to play a major role in global business. But what will that role be? In this book, two experts, who have created business scenarios for some of the world's largest organizations--including Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, IBM, and Motorola--present three very informed versions of how China's future may unfold in the coming years and what it means to the rest of the world. These scenarios provide a foundation on which today's companies can build business strategies for years to come.
Click here to read the preface from this book.
Click here to read the preface from this book.
English
JAMES OGILVY and PETER SCHWARTZ are partners in Global Business Network (GBN), a consulting and research firm that is devoted to helping clients develop business strategies that fit the emerging realities of global markets. They are responsible for the widespread use of business scenarios, a process they pioneered in the early 1990s and which Schwartz made popular through his book The Art of the Long View.
English
Preface.
Acknowledgements.
Introduction: China in the 21st Century: The World's Biggest Story.
THE WAY OF CHINA.
China Basics.
Driving Forces.
The Worms in the Core.
SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE OF CHINA.
An Introduction of Scenarios and Development Models.
Scenario One: China Web.
Scenario Two: The New Mandarins.
Scenario Three: The Thief of Beijing.
IMPLICATIONS HOW TO USE THESE SCENARIOS FOR OUR CHILDREN.
Acknowledgements.
Introduction: China in the 21st Century: The World's Biggest Story.
THE WAY OF CHINA.
China Basics.
Driving Forces.
The Worms in the Core.
SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE OF CHINA.
An Introduction of Scenarios and Development Models.
Scenario One: China Web.
Scenario Two: The New Mandarins.
Scenario Three: The Thief of Beijing.
IMPLICATIONS HOW TO USE THESE SCENARIOS FOR OUR CHILDREN.
English
"...anyone concerned with the future of the region is likely to find this a useful read." (Long Range Planning, Vol.33, 2000) "It still amazes me how well the scenario process works in getting the practitioner to a place not accessed by other strategic thought processes. Whether the reader is a China novice or expert, this collection of scenarios will expand one's strategic thought horizons." —Tom Davis, vice president and chief economist, Motorola
"This book provides a very interesting look at possible future Chinas. Three scenarios, all plausible, suggest how very different the outcomes could be." —A.W. Marshall, advisor for net assessment, United States Office of the Secretary of Defense
"What makes China so interesting-and so unpredictable-is that opposite scenarios often have almost equal plausibility. Anyone trying to divine China's future will find this study both provocative and informative." —Orville Schell, longtime observer of China, author, and dean of the Graduate School of Journalism, University of California at Berkeley
