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More About This Title Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die
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“Mesmerizing & fascinating...” —The Seattle Post-Intelligencer
"The Freakonomics of big data." —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com
Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages
An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a “how to” for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques.
Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die.
Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections.
How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn.
Predictive Analytics unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate.
In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition— former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction:
How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more.
A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a consumer of it — or consumed by it — get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.
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ERIC SIEGEL, PhD, founder of Predictive Analytics World and Executive Editor of the Predictive Analytics Times, makes the how and why of predictive analytics understandable and captivating. Eric is a former Columbia University professor—who used to sing educational songs to his students—and a renowned speaker, educator, and leader in the field.
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Foreword Thomas H. Davenport xiii
Preface xv
What is the occupational hazard of predictive analytics?
Introduction: The Prediction Effect 1
Chapter 1: Liftoff! Prediction Takes Action (deployment) 17
Chapter 2: With Power Comes Responsibility: Hewlett-Packard, Target, and the Police Deduce Your Secrets (ethics) 37
Chapter 3: The Data Effect: A Glut at the End of the Rainbow (data) 67
Chapter 4: The Machine That Learns: A Look Inside Chase’s Prediction of Mortgage Risk (modeling) 103
Chapter 5: The Ensemble Effect: Netflix, Crowdsourcing, and Supercharging Prediction (ensembles) 133
Chapter 6: Watson and the Jeopardy! Challenge (question answering) 151
Chapter 7: Persuasion by the Numbers: How Telenor, U.S. Bank, and the Obama Campaign Engineered Influence (uplift) 187
Afterword 218
Ten Predictions for the First Hour of 2020
Appendices
A. Five Effects of Prediction 221
B. Twenty-One Applications of Predictive Analytics 222
C. Prediction People—Cast of "Characters" 225
Notes 228
Acknowledgments 290
About the Author 292
Index 293
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Praise for Predictive Analytics
"What Nate Silver did for poker and politics, this does for everything else. A broad, well-written book easily accessible to non-nerd readers."
—DAVID LEINWEBER, author of Nerds on Wall Street: Math, Machines and Wired Markets
"This book is an operating manual for twenty-first-century life. Drawing predictions from big data is at the heart of nearly everything, whether it's in science, business, finance, sports, or politics. And Eric Siegel is the ideal guide."
—STEPHEN BAKER, author of The Numerati and Final Jeopardy: Man vs. Machine and the Quest to Know Everything
"Simultaneously entertaining, informative, and nuanced. Siegel goes behind the hype and makes the science exciting."
—RAYID GHANI, Chief Data Scientist, Obama for America 2012 Campaign
"This is Moneyball for business, government, and healthcare."
—JIM STERNE, founder, eMetrics Summit; chairman, Digital Analytics Association
"Predictive Analytics is not only a deeply informative dive into a topic that is critical to virtually every sector of business today, it is also a delight to read."
—GEOFFREY MOORE, author of Crossing the Chasm
"The future is right now—you're living in it. Read this book to gain understanding of where we are and where we're headed."
—ROGER CRAIG, record-breaking analytical Jeopardy! champion; CEO, Cotinga
